Wednesday, August 1, 2007

A Failed Prediction: The Computer: Part 4

In looking at a failed prediction, I was looking at the quote from Ken Olsen who said "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."— Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment, in 1977. In this blog, investigation into why this was said is investigated.

Two websites are of particular interest when looking into this quote. First, one side disputes this quote saying it was taken out of context and that Ken Olsen was saying that he didn't want a computer controlling his home, while others say that he meant he didn't want a central computer in his home. A defense of Olsen's comments can be found here.

The second group of folks say that Olsen made that comment and he believed it - and that he guiding the company away from the personal PC. Gorden Bell confirmed that Olsen said that quote and believed that Olsen just didn't like the small computer idea. That evidence can be found here.

Olsen was eventually removed from his position of power at Digital having missed the PC trend and the associated opportunities. I couldn't find documentation to see why Olsen believed the PC wouldn't succeed, or why he didn't lend credit to the ideas of his staff. A reference to the staff showed that they did have the vision though - here is a quote from a web page

"Bell also sent me a remarkable Digital interoffice memo from 1969, in which Bell and other staffers laid out the potential for a small home computer — including applications like "shopping in the home," "play complex games" and "income tax figuring." "

In this case, it appears that a personal bias against something lead to the missed prediction by the leader of a company. Despite listening to his staff who were seeing the potential of the computer, Olsen missed this opportunity. Regarldess of the different opinions, Digital was in a good position to capitalize in this space, and failed. It would seem that the key learning here is to listen to those you have hired.

1 comment:

Lyr Lobo said...

Great topic and discussion, Steve. Being a former systems analyst on a VAX cluster, I liked DEC products and often wondered why they did not leverage the early PC movement.

Yet IBM is also noted for making bold predictions in the late 60s about the future of a limited software industry.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0SMG/is_n4_v9/ai_7131826/pg_3

Here is a tidbit of prediction humor to round out your collection. Thanks!

http://www.mrlizard.com/70.html