A Future Prediction: How to approach the problem of prediction

So how do we make a prediction about the future? Well, there seems to be two camps - both are successful it would appear. The first is to merely make a guess - well, it's a bit more than a guess, maybe use the word intuition. What does your intuition tell you will happen? When working with economic data, this approach seems just as accurate as the second. The second approach - use data and try to bring multiple sources of data together and build a picture. This approach is more in alignment with my style of approaching problems. However, before I start-out, I am going to write an entry that is purely gut feel. Afterwards, I will do the research and try and vector in and make a forecast that will hopefully be more accurate. In 10 years I can reflect on both and see if either are even close to reality.