Wednesday, August 1, 2007

A Successful Prediction - Moore's Law - Part 1

In looking for a successful prediction, I thought I would look at Moore's Law. Gorden Moore is one of the Intel founders and a brilliant individual. To paraphrase - Moore theorized that every 2 years the number of transistors would double on a computer chip. This would translate directly into increased speeds. Here is the direct quote taken from Wikipedia

“The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year ... Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000. I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single wafer.[1]

This quote was stated in 1965 and later updated to every 2 years in 1975. In part 2, I will include evidence that supports this statement.

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