Sunday, August 26, 2007

Web 2.0 Gap Cast

GabCast is pretty cool system that allows a user to call in a GapCast to a system that will convert your voice call into a mp3 and then hook this up to your account which can host subscribers. All of the details are handled by the website, which was very well done in terms of usability. Simply sign up for an account at www.gabcast.com, then choose the option to phone in your GabCast, call the toll-free number, enter in some account info, and then record. That's it! People can subscribe to your feed and get updates.

I wanted to test out the system, and I created a 10 second proof of concept - just click here. For me, this model doesn't fit how I would use the system (I rather write/read than talk/video). However, if I were traveling across the globe and didn't have a computer, this would be a great way to give friends updates as to my activities. In most countries a phone is easily acquired, certainly it is easier than a computer and Internet connection. I would also imagine in terms of real-time information, this would be handy. Certainly on a college campus news of a great party will spread even more quickly!

With my up and coming travel I will keep this tool in my Web 2.0 toolkit. I know that I will be traveling to locations where connecting to the Internet will be difficult at times. However, with GapCast, its just a phone call away.

Web 2.0 Browsing with Tags - Delicious

Here is one more tool that I am checking out. This tool is http://del.icio.us and you can find my list here http://del.icio.us/scchadwi. This tool is a like your browser, but it is online and the links are shared. This browser also allows the bookmarks to have tags for categorization which allows advanced searching. I say that I am checking this tool out because I think that it will take several months to get a feel for this tool and how useful it will be. However, the initial thoughts are that this tool should be pretty cool. I say this because links of interest are only bookmarked when people think that the link is meaningful (people don't like clutter, so why bookmark garbage). Because there is a filter on the system (albeit a social filter), the system can bubble up the most popular links within a given field to the top of the list. This has two uses - emerging trends become clear, but also experts within the field, even the new ones are identified. This, to me, is very exciting and useful. Combine this technology with Goggles "Top 100 searched items" found here, a broad picture is formed. If you haven't downloaded this tool and setup your account, you might be missing out!

Web 2.0 Technorati

In checking out Technorati, the first objective was to figure out what the heck this website http://technorati.com/ is and what does it do for me as a user. I went to the website to see if the meaning would jump out. I studied this for a while without luck. So, when that happens, where do you go to figure something out - realizing that no single person can be an expert in everything. Well, www.Wikipedia.org is your best bet. Sure enough, Wikipedia told me what I needed to know (found here if you want the official scoop).

Technorati is a search engine for blogs. The need to search blogs will increase as more meaningful information is posted. I tried out Technorati for a while, and although I recognize this is a first attempt into this field, I am not sure it is ready for prime time. In terms of searching, I entered some content from experts within their respective field, unfortunately the blog didn't return what I was hoping for. It is certainly possible that I just happened to request the wrong search words, but in this specific instance I was disappointed. Google does a very good job of bubbling content up to the top that most people find valuable and pushes the other stuff towards the end of the search list. I decided to investigate some of the content to see if I could spot why the search results were so different from what I expected. I was surprised by what I found.

In looking at content for top blogs, a number of blog authors were asking people to push their blog to the top by requesting that people add an entry and then do a search on that blog. I think that this explains in part why the returned search results from above were skewed. It is too bad that Technorati doesn't ban/delete this type of behavior as it really diminishes their service. When I saw this, it started to make sense. Anyways, I think that my summary of Technorati is something along the lines of I like the idea of a blog search engine, but unless they figure out how to get the right content on the first try, then Google will likely put them out of business.

Web 2.0 - My Slide Show

I decided that I should make a quick slide show as I wanted to see how simple it is to create a project. Good news - it is as simple as cut/copy/paste/save and then upload. You don't believe me? Here are some quick steps to make a slide show. I opt'd to use a service called www.slideshow.com to host my slides. This is a free site with options to upgrade if needed. The default has something around 1 GB of hosting which isn't bad considering it is free.

The steps to use this site to share pictures are as follows. Decide how you want to upload your slideshow - PDF, PPT or some other options. PPT is very user friendly, so I used this. Ok - now for the recipe
  1. Take your pictures and place each picture(s) on a slide. Add as many slides as needed as long as you stay under the 30 MB file size limitation. Pictures can be added in terms of cut/copy/paste or inserted.
  2. Go to www.slideshow.com and log into your free account.
  3. Now select the option to upload your presentation - wait a fairly long time for the presentation to upload [It's free - what do you expect...]
  4. Click on 'my slide show' and there you have it.
Here is an example of a slide show - click here.

There is one gotcha that I thought I would point out. Notice in my example the 2nd slide is just a pure gray slide? Well, this is because I didn't have the slide centered in the ppt and only a portion of the slide was taken. The entire picture must be centered. I was hoping that the application would center the picture as this seemed reasonable, but that isn't the case.

What would make www.slideshow.com even better (besides being faster and centering pictures?), well, a bit of user protection for content would be nice. Once pictures are uploaded, anyone on the Internet can look at them. This isn't a huge problem, but if you are taking pictures of your family/kids, you might not want this content available to the general public. It would be nice if they created access control lists or some other structure that controlled access.

Go luck and enjoy!

Web 2.0 SlideShow

In checking out SlideShow, I was pretty impressed. I think that this is a pretty cool tool and there was some interesting content out there. I think my favorite slide show is located here - it is along the lines of Art that messes with your mind... Each picture has multiple pictures within - and they are very different. Anyways, I might post my own slide show for fun, but for now, I will leave you with an interesting link.

Saturday, August 25, 2007

Web 2.0 Flickr

So I was checking out some web picture/sharing services. I blogged on Flickr and Google earlier, but now I wanted to check out the next level - how to access the services programically. I was pleased by the amount of material on the web around Flickr - a number of examples and podcasts exist that allow easy incorporation into Ruby/Rails, C# and most other popular languages. Here is the Flick link with key information.

I also looked at Google, but I haven't found quite what I was looking for in terms of ease of implementation. There api documentation is found here. However, I didn't find as many examples on how to use this API and it doesn't look like it support the incorporation into native languages as does Flickr. Maybe someone can point me in the right direction as I could certainly use the help with Picassa and Google. Thanks!

Web 2.0 Corporate Skype

Skype - not just a fun word to say, but a very cool program, or so the advertisement goes. The program can be found here. Skype allows calls between users and also included video (web cam) if you have it installed. Anyways, I had an interesting issue with Skype, and maybe someone has a solution. I can only run Skype with a corporate version installed on my work computer. This ensures it is battle hardened I guess. Well, this is pretty irritating because my VPN runs at a fraction of the network speed I have available which diminishes call and video quality. However, when I don't run with the VPN, I don't have access to the proxy server (obvious statement). I don't want to turn on and off the proxy server daily, so I am in somewhat of a pickle. Anyone have any ideas? I can't run the public version because then I am in non-compliance of our security policies :( Feedback and solutions are welcome!

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Robotics - The Need

So what is the need for robotics one might ask. We have all watched science fiction movies and have thought that is not practical. Well, you might be right (for now). However, in an earlier blog I noted that the "need" for robotics can often accelerate the innovation within a field. So, why would we need a robot?

In reading the following article, the author shows some clear examples of what services a robot could provide. One example was how the household vacuuming is now done by a robot. Here is a link to the robotic vacuum he mentioned. He notes that each night the robot comes out and vacuums up the house. This is clearly a service that many would be interested in, and is available today.

Another example are the Predator unmanned drones used during wartime. These drones have proven to be invaluable to the military as illustrated by their continued use. Other robots include devices used to dismantle bombs which are used by SWAT and the military teams. In both cases above - risk to the human operator is reduced. Other robots could certainly be used in search and rescue operations. Combining robotics with advanced sensors could certainly help save lives in environments where humans might not be able to easily go such as into burning or collapsed buildings, or other hostile environments. These robots could send feedback about the environments and then the human operators would be able to make better decisions. Many of these examples are highlighted in the above article.

The above examples are meant to illustrate the need for robotics. Between the commercial value and the benefit to human lives, many would agree that robotics offers solutions to problems that have yet to be addressed. Given this need, the innovation is sure to follow.

Robotics - Developing the Infrastructor

When reading an article about robotics, it became clear that many of the topics that we have covered in a our class need to intersect to develop the required infrastucture. Many of the items seemed to echo comments made by Dr. Halal during our residency. Here are some examples.

In order for robotics to flourish, the computational requirements need to be addressed. Robotics leverage AI, which is recognized as heavily computational. However, looking to the future, we see quantum computing just up on the horizon. Also, parallel computing is under active research right now - just look at Best Buy to see the presence of the new Quad-core computers from Intel. Robotics will benefit from the advances in computational computing - who knows - they might turn out to be a major driver.

Grid computing is another interesting concept. If there is not enough computational power within a system, then the system can reach out to the network and ask for network resources. This collection of computing resources is called grid computing, among other names.

However, to reach the grid, the network must be established. To have a network, not only bandwidth is required, but also coverage must be in place. Both of these requirements are already under active research. Look at the proposals around WiMax, Wi-Fi, 802.11n. Distances of both long and short range are addressed, and transfer speeds of data are becoming quite impressive, and will continue to grow.

Grids and city coverage are also being established. Cities like Albuquerque and Portland already have blanket city coverage. Technologies such as the iPhone and Blackberry are starting to leverage the VOIP to make calls, which will continue to drive the proliferation of these networks.

In short, the infrastructure to enable robotics to thrive is either in development or on the horizon. Really, the question is if robotics is going to help drive and accelerate these solutions, or if it is gated by the current technology. My take - it will drive it. The need for robotics is huge - and when there is a need, innovation always prevails.

Robotics - Initial Read

I started to read a bit on Robotics and thought I would start internally with my company. I was curious to see how we played in this field. Here is a press release that I thought was very interesting. The format is an interview Q&A style. Click here for the article.

Jim Butler talks about some very interesting aspects of robotics - areas that I had previously not thought about. For example, I was curious about Intel's engagement in this field. As it turns out, robots requires a lot of computing power. This power is for the computations and the associated AI that helps drive a robot. As such, the computational component call out to Intel as this is their expertise. Many other interesting items were covered in the article. Anyways, I'm going to blog on specific areas of this article over the next few days and dissect portions of the article as there are many areas that require further exploration.

Web 2.0 - MySpace - you can keep it...

In an earlier post I spoke about the Google web interface/web page. I had tried this tool/interface out but it didn't meet my needs. I decided that I would check out MySpace as I hear a lot about that interface. I poked around at it for a few hours and wasn't too impressed. It did a great job on giving choices and profiles, but the layout seemed a bit restricted. It seems that flexibility of AJAX hasn't quite caught up with some of these web tools. If drag and drop applets were allowed, then this would significantly enhance the experience. I was content to move on and say this tool didn't meet my need. However, the next day, I woke to an inbox of spam from MySpace. I don't mind if a tool doesn't meet the need, I do mind if the tool creates waste, or allows waste to be created. I need to check my settings, but an inbox full of spam is just not acceptable. My goal for today, delete my account from MySpace.

Friday, August 17, 2007

Web 2.0 - Driving a changing in my behavior - how about you?

I realized last night that blogging has driven a change in my behavior and was curious if anyone else in our class noticed that they had changed as well. I realized that my typo's have been reducing. When I initially used the spell check on the blogs I would have lots of corrections. However, as I continue to blog the number of errors has been dwindling - in terms of typo's. I know that I often use the wrong word, but spell check can't catch that issue. However, I have also upgraded to Word 2007 which provides instant feedback - so maybe that is driving the change in behavior. I was curious if anyone else noticed that their accuracy was increasing with the arrival of these new feedback mechanisms?

Web 2.0 - Communication Tools - Linked-In

I tried the Google Groups and the web page as a way to stay connected with family. I liked the idea of the Google Groups, but as a connection tool with their web pages, I wasn't overly impressed. In terms of connection tools, the Groups are great for generic email addresses, but I think that there are some better web tools to allow connections and networks. Here is one such tool.

LinkedIn (found here) is a great tool that allows personal networks to be formed between individuals. I didn't find this tool, it found me. Let me explain. LinkedIn allows social networks to be built - and people can be added to your network. When I came in one day, I had a number of "LinkedIn" emails waiting for me. I read up on the concept, and I started accepting these "invitations." The power of this system becomes readily apparent as you see your network of business contacts grow. In fact, I even became connected to one of the CTU professors that taught one of our classes through a friend - yup - small world! Anyways, as people tend to move around and change industries, you can keep in touch and develop your network over time.

Another neat item about LinkedIn is that it seems to cross reference with the monster.com job posting. If your network is big enough (which it grows quickly because your friends friends become your friends) you can possibly get an inside contact on the job front. I think that there was a movie about everyone being within 7 degrees of freedom of knowing each other - this system works off of the same concept.

Anyways, the point of this post is that finding the right tool for the right job is very important. If the tool you are using isn't a perfect fit, chances are that there is a tool out there that will work better. GoogleGroups are great for emails, but LinkedIn is better for maintaining a business/social network - IMHO.

Google Groups and Home Page

I decided to try and create a home page for a Google Group that I created. I worked on this for a while, but I wasn't too excited about the end result. However, considering that this was a first for Google to go into this space, I wasn't too disappointed. I think what would make this better is if they were to leverage the applet concept from the personalized web space. If you haven't created your own Google home page, you are missing out. The problem I had with the Google Groups home page is that I couldn't really get the layout that organized the web page in a way that I liked. It needed the pick-up and drag concept. Maybe someone out there has an example of what a great Google Group web page looks like? If so, I would love to have a link so I can shameless copy it!

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Mind Map

Part of an assignment is to investigate Mind Mapping Tools and Technology. I thought I would do this assignment in Google Docs for fun and then maybe publish to a blog, although I'm not sure yet. Regardless, I thought this would be a good test to see how easy Google Docs handles a longer gathering of information.

I thought I would show off a free tool called FreeMind, which can be found here. This is a great tool and I will include some information about this tool and some screen captures. First, what is this tool you might ask? FreeMind is a tool that is a Java based tool (runs on lots of platforms) and helps capture and share information. That is a broad description, but this tool does a lot! It is not web based, however, it is still a great tool to have in the toolbox. I often use this tool when I am brainstorming different ideas or trying to determine a flow of information. However, it can do much more than that.

Step 1 is to go to the link above and download the program for your given platform. The install is very easy, although the first time you run it might take a second or two to load up. After it is installed, the best way to get started is actually to click on the Help and then the documentation. The documentation that comes up is actually a mind map! By clicking through the navigation/help, the user gets a great feel of how the program works.

Here is a quick capture of a Mind Map - I took this out of the help tutorial, which does demo a lot of the nice capability.

What is nice is that the central idea is captured and then there are branches coming off of this idea. Each branch can have more branches - think of it as a free with a base which has limbs, which has branches, and then twigs and finally leaves. There is no limit to how many branches are present, and you can have as many leafs as needed.

Another nice feature is that the content that goes into a leaf can trigger other activities. For example, one leaf might have a huge section of help on short cut key mappings as shown on the left here.

On the right there are expandable links. Some of these links open web pages while others can link to other mind maps.

Executing other files is also possible (bat, exe's, etc.).

Another great use for Mind Maps and this application are for brain storming sessions. When a problem requires inputs from lots of people, this program can rapidly organize these ideas and facilitate the organization into a meaningful structure.

Anyways, check out this application - its free and very powerful!

Steve Chadwick

Aug 2007.

Success with Google Distribution Lists

Well, I am glad to report that I have had my first success with upgrading my family to Web 2.0. I setup a distribution list for group email via Google Groups. I am proud to report that it only took ~ 1 week before the family was sending emails to this dist list and sharing funny stories :) This dist list is a great way for folks to stay in touch with each other. Now I need to build up our web page which comes along with the group dist list. It looks like blogging is also allowed there as well - so it might be a great way to allow one stop shopping...

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Passwords and Web 2.0

With all of the new web 2.0 tools, and every tool having a login, a family member asked me about how to manage passwords. I thought I would respond to that question quickly here. There are several camps of thought here, and I thought I would hit a couple of them.

First, let's talk about passwords. Passwords should be at least 8 characters in length, and more is always better (meeting the next criteria). Passwords should have a combination of upper and lower case, numbers (0..9) and at least one special character (!#$%^&*()_+@) as examples. If your password has all of the above criteria, most would consider it a "strong" password.

Some folks say that you should use a different password for every account. That is certainly the most secure, but pretty tough to remember which password goes with each account . If you go this route, there is a great tool called Password Safe and is found here. This tool is free and has been proven to be very secure. Essentially Password Safe is an encrypted collection of all of your passwords and you have one master password to unlock your safe. The tool has a ton of neat features, including the ability to generate strong passwords.

However, not all folks want the added overhead of using a tool to keep track of all of their passwords. Another option, although not as secure, is to use a two or three tiered password system. This approach divides your accounts into several tiers. For example, your banking, stock/account that involve money is guarded by one strong password. This password is used only with these accounts. Another strong password (different from the first) is used to protect your common account such as email, or less valuable accounts. The advantage here is that your most commonly used password (accessing email, etc.) isn't in use as much a your financial password, and as such, this is more secure that using the same password for every account.

Regardless of the method you choose, make sure to change your password every 90 days (more frequently is better). Also realize that if someone wants into your account, they will probably figure out a way. The key is to make it tough enough that it isn't worth their time. Also, don't rule out social engineering as a way to attack your account. Social engineering refers to the techniques to extract the password from you via some "official" sounding reason. These techniques rely on impersonation or someone often saying that they want to help you, or some other official looking website looking for information (phishing).

Thursday, August 9, 2007

Web Cam Finally Found

I'm no expert on Web Cam's, but I have tried a couple in the last two weeks and have found one that is great. I tried some of the lower end Logitech's and was very disappointed. I finally moved up to the Fusion, and the old saying is true: "You get what you pay for...". I am very pleased with the Fusion, the color adjustments, face tracking, clarity and voice are excellent. If you shop around, you can pick them up for under $50 as well (normally around $100).

Endnote X1 with Word 2007

Well, I was excited when Endnote released X1 which was supposed to work with Word 2007. Well, it worked for about a day, and now it doesn't. Everytime I launch Endnote it crashed. Even after contacting the support desk for various solutions and work-arounds, I have yet to make any progress. Anyways, not sure how isolated this problem is, but a word to the cautious - Endnote X1 isn't quite ready for prime-time...

Friday, August 3, 2007

A Future Prediction: Multi-core Design

In predicting the future, my gut feel prediction was that we would see 1024 cores in ~ 10 years. I decided to research this aspect of the prediction. I have found a number of very interesting links and will summarize here.

First, Intel has demonstrated a working 80-core processor, and a company called ClearSpeed has shown a 96-core. In both cases these cores are on a single chip. Here is the article. The article notes several issues that need to be resolved. First, the chips do not run the x86 instruction set - which is very popular today. Second, how memory interfaces with these chips needs to be resolved. Third, figuring out how to allow developers to leverage these chips in terms of parallel programming needs to be address. The third issue has shown itself as an issue in several other posts...

So, when will the 80-core be mainstream? Intel notes that 80-core should be available in 5 years [article]. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, my gut feels says that is about right.

So - what does this mean to my prediction? Base on this new data, I think that my gut feel may have been overly aggressive. I would like to change my data based prediction to one of the following. In 10 years we will hit 512 core processors, or in 15 years we may see 1024. The 10 year/512 core also lines up better with the data from MIT that was blogged upon earlier.

Second Life - How to change your password

Here is a quick how-to on changing your Second Life password. Granted, this only takes about 1 minute, but if you don't remember the exact sequence of steps to get to the correct screen, you are left Googling the web. I thought I would write it down for my own use as I am sure that either A) I will forget it later or B) I will forget it later....

Steps....
  1. Go to http://www.SecondLife.com
  2. Click on support [Top menu item on right hand side of screen]
  3. Scrolll down this page and look on the left hand side for an option in the section called "My Second Life" and choose "My Account".
  4. After clicking "My Account" on the right hand side of the screen there will be an option called "Password" which should be selected and the password screen will be presented.

These directions were recorded on 3-Aug-2007. Obviously Second Life could change the menu layout at any given point and these directions would be invalid.

Wednesday, August 1, 2007

A Future Prediction: 512 Bit Computing

In my previous gut feel prediction on where multi-core technology is going, I mentioned that I think it will hit 512 bits in about 10 years. Well, in doing some research, it looks like Transmeta has made mention that they are looking at 256-bit system, although they have not specified any time frame. The article can be found here and also here.

I also stated that I thought Apple has a 128-bit system out. I did a bit more checking, and I don't believe that to be the case. I would welcome the correction, but when poking around at the Apple site, it appears to be primarily 64-bit computing. Also, wikipedia confirmed here that there are no mainstream 128 bit systems (Aug 1, 2007). The exception to this noted by Wikipedia is that there are a few super-computers that are a true 128-bit.

In reading through several other sites, it seems that the general feel is that it will take a while for 64-bit architecture to be adopted, and that should take us a ways into the future. However, if this is the case, one has to wonder what Transmeta is working on and how close they are to success.

Does this change my opinion or prediction? Well, I don't think so. Even though this is clearly not mainstream, it is interesting that Transmeta is working in this space currently. Transmeta has delivered unique systems in the past (ultra low power systems) and they should not be underestimated. It seems that there is a reasonable of opportunity for a 512-bit system to emerge.

A Future Prediction: StreamIt, A programming language

In a previous post, I highlighted programming and multi-core systems and included links to a presentation that originated out of MIT. MIT is active in the multi-core and parallel programming world. In the presentation, a reference was made to StreamIt, and I decided to check it out.

The StreamIt home page can be found here. StreamIt is a language that focuses on multi-core systems, processing data streams, and parallel execution. The language aims to reduce complexity of this type of parallel processing and move some portions of this to the compiler.

This is very exciting as MIT is often at the front when driving new technology that is later adapted by industry. If anyone has any experience with SteamIT (the good, bad or ugly) I would love to hear from you. Please post any comments and share your experience.

A Future Prediction: Multi-core and Programming Languages

The first thought was to begin looking around at programming languages and multi-core. So, going to MIT (active in multi-core research) they had a great presentation posted here. Check out slide 12 - this shows a picture that shows a prediction that multi-core will almost hit 512 cores just before 2020. This figure was taken out of Saman Amarasinghe presentation (click the link above). Here is the slide that is very interesting....

This presentation should be reviewed by anyone interested in where the technology is going and Saman Amarasinghe did a great job pulling a solid overview together. His concluding slide peaks to the point where we have an opportunity to really tackle this tough multi-core problem since no existing solution is currently in place. Also, many of the slides hit previous concerns in my original prediction. Having read this presentation, I am confident that we will see a break-through in the new few years that will fundamentally change our approach.

A Future Prediction: A Prediction with No Data

I previously noted that i was going to make a future prediction on programming environments with a focus on the multi-core technology. I noted two approaches - first the "gut feel" and the second would be based on data. This blog is the "gut feel" approach. This is based on my background and time studying CompSci, so I guess there is some data involved, but I have not consulted external resources.

In 10 years, I think that computers will have 1024 cores and parallel computing will they will run at 512bits. All software written will compile down to code that can run in parallel. I also think that todays threading models will be moved into the compiler thereby simplifying the writting of code.

OK - that is my prediction. Here are some of my reasons behind those thoughts. I know that the trend of cores is increasing - we have gone from 1 -> 2 --> 4 and Intel has noted that they have produced an 80 core. I believe that parallel execution tapers off around 16 cores, but I think that barrier will be pushed. I also think that we have seen operating systems move from 16 bit to 32 bit and now 64 bit. I think Apple runs some systems at 128 bit. These transitions seem slower, so I think that maybe in 5 years we might see 256 bit followed by a push for 512 bit. Finally, writing code. I am sure that is going to be vastly different that what we have now. However, I believe our threading model will change. Today's model requires a fairly deep knowledge of how threads work. Also, writing threaded code is very difficult to debug and costly to maintain. I think that a shift of this complexity will go from the source code into the compiler and that the compiler will determine what can run in parallel and what needs to run in serial.

So there it is - in 10 years - let's see what happens.

A Future Prediction: How to approach the problem of prediction

So how do we make a prediction about the future? Well, there seems to be two camps - both are successful it would appear. The first is to merely make a guess - well, it's a bit more than a guess, maybe use the word intuition. What does your intuition tell you will happen? When working with economic data, this approach seems just as accurate as the second. The second approach - use data and try to bring multiple sources of data together and build a picture. This approach is more in alignment with my style of approaching problems. However, before I start-out, I am going to write an entry that is purely gut feel. Afterwards, I will do the research and try and vector in and make a forecast that will hopefully be more accurate. In 10 years I can reflect on both and see if either are even close to reality.

A Future Prediction: Topic Introduction

As part of a futuring class, I am to make a future prediction. I am thinking that I am going to investigate the field of parallel processing. I have chosen this field because I think it is very interesting, esp. with the emergence of multi-core technology. Given the scope of this field, I think that i am going to try and narrow it down and focus on programming and development, and how might it change over the next 10 years.

I am sure that I will be blogging on other topics throughout this series, and as such, I need a convention. I will adapt the following approach. I will label the title of the blog "A Future Prediction" followed by a more descriptive qualifier. I will try to make each blog stand-alone, but that might be more difficult than I suspect. However, after you have read this introduction, you should be able to skip around a bit. Please realize that as you jump around that you are going to get exposed to different angles of this problem.

OK - with that out of the way - let's go have some fun and see what' out there!

Predictions: A Success and a Failure - How do they compare?

What does Olson's prediction of PCs not making it into the home environment and Gordon Moore's Law have in common? Well, it appears that in both cases a "swag" or a guess was taken. It seems that neither individual used a lot of data and they operated from their instincts. In Moore's case, he was right on the mark. Olson missed on his prediction and later stepped down from leading Digital into the future.

I thought that this was interesting and very different than Dr. Halal's approach that says you use the data from various sources and build models to make more accurate predictions. I tend to agree with Halal, but Moore's Law is a great example of how a brilliant person can have insight into the future without using a lot of data.

These two approaches are very different. As stated in our text book - when dealing with economic data, most of the predictive models tend to fail - regardless of complexity.

I am left with the following question: How do we reconcile the insights of brilliant people and also leverage predictive models? What do you think? Please leave a comment as I would to hear your thought - maybe you can help me mold my own.

A Successful Prediction - Moore's Law - Part 3

Moore's prediction that states the number of transistors on a chip will double every 2 years continues to hold true. Moore suggested that this might end when the size of the transistor reaches that size of atoms, but believes that this won't happen until 2020. However, other futurists seem to disagree. For example, Kurzweil suggest that this Law will hold true long after 2020 - he believes that a new approach will emerge and allow this trend to continue.

So - how did Moore's prediction come about? Here is a an article that discusses that question specifically. The highlights are as follows. Essentially Moore has noticed the number of components on a chip where doubling each year, and from there he concluded this trend would continue. He later revised this doubling to every two years. However, Moore notes that he didn't realize the significance of his discovery. In fact, there is a great comment found here that says "Moore says he now sees his law as more beautiful than he had realised. "Moore's Law is a violation of Murphy's Law. Everything gets better and better."[13] "

A Successful Prediction - Moore's Law - Part 2

In looking at a successful prediction, Moore's law is investigated. Moore's law states that every 2 years the number of transistors on a computer chip will double. Here is a great graph that shows the trend over the last 30 years taken fromWikipedia. There is a common misperception that Moore said 18 months vs 24 months - the graph shows how the data supports the 24 months.

A Successful Prediction - Moore's Law - Part 1

In looking for a successful prediction, I thought I would look at Moore's Law. Gorden Moore is one of the Intel founders and a brilliant individual. To paraphrase - Moore theorized that every 2 years the number of transistors would double on a computer chip. This would translate directly into increased speeds. Here is the direct quote taken from Wikipedia

“The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year ... Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000. I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single wafer.[1]

This quote was stated in 1965 and later updated to every 2 years in 1975. In part 2, I will include evidence that supports this statement.

A Failed Prediction: The Computer: Part 5

This post concludes the series on a failed prediction. Specifically, the Digital company leader - Olsen was investigated. Actually, it was his quote around his believe that the personal computer would made significant inroads in the consumer market.

It's difficult to determine why Olsen believed this. Some believed that Olsen just didn't like the PC and this impacted his judgement. It seems very reasonable that a CEO might use what we call "gut instinct" to lead a company, and that Olsen just missed an opportunity. It also seems reasonable that Olsen didn't see the necessary infrastructure in place to allow the PC to flourish. For example, the PC has capitalized on information sharing via the Internet. Maybe Olsen failed to believe that this complexity of allowing computers to network across the world would be in place. However, it seems clear that any CEO should have a process in place to respond to inputs and try and determine future opportunities to avoid missing the opportunities of large financial gain.

A Failed Prediction: The Computer: Part 4

In looking at a failed prediction, I was looking at the quote from Ken Olsen who said "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."— Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment, in 1977. In this blog, investigation into why this was said is investigated.

Two websites are of particular interest when looking into this quote. First, one side disputes this quote saying it was taken out of context and that Ken Olsen was saying that he didn't want a computer controlling his home, while others say that he meant he didn't want a central computer in his home. A defense of Olsen's comments can be found here.

The second group of folks say that Olsen made that comment and he believed it - and that he guiding the company away from the personal PC. Gorden Bell confirmed that Olsen said that quote and believed that Olsen just didn't like the small computer idea. That evidence can be found here.

Olsen was eventually removed from his position of power at Digital having missed the PC trend and the associated opportunities. I couldn't find documentation to see why Olsen believed the PC wouldn't succeed, or why he didn't lend credit to the ideas of his staff. A reference to the staff showed that they did have the vision though - here is a quote from a web page

"Bell also sent me a remarkable Digital interoffice memo from 1969, in which Bell and other staffers laid out the potential for a small home computer — including applications like "shopping in the home," "play complex games" and "income tax figuring." "

In this case, it appears that a personal bias against something lead to the missed prediction by the leader of a company. Despite listening to his staff who were seeing the potential of the computer, Olsen missed this opportunity. Regarldess of the different opinions, Digital was in a good position to capitalize in this space, and failed. It would seem that the key learning here is to listen to those you have hired.

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

A Failed Prediction: The Computer: Part 3

In part 2 of a Failed Prediction, a number of quotes were offered. These quotes had the flavor of promiment people noting how the computer was doomed for failure. Some of the quotes we have likely heard, some where amusing, but the question remains - are they true?

Kevin Maney wrote a great online article that sheds some light on these comments. The article can be found here. In this article, many of the computer quotes associated with the failure of the computer are dispelled. Another article that was published by Science and Technology also noted one of Bill Gates famous quotes to be false - it can be found here.

So - it goes without saying, not all things that we read are accurate, which is certainly true with the web. Two web sites above show contradictory evidence exists to common quotes. This underscores the importance of validation.

With this said, some of the quotes do appear to be true. For example, the quote from Ken Olson
• "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
— Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment, in 1977.

Part 4 of this series will investigate if any insight can be gleamed into why Ken Olsen felt this way. There might not be any specifics available, but it is worth checking out!

A Failed Prediction: The Computer: Part 2

Who said the computer would fail? Well, I thought it would be fun to track down some references that might be of interest to the reader...

Here are two quotes from this web page
Computers in the future may...perhaps only weigh 1.5 tons.
- Popular Mechanics, 1949.
There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.
- Kenneth Olsen, president and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.

And of course - going to Wikipedia - there are a number of quotes...
This entire section has been taken directly from Wikipedia.
  • "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." -- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC), maker of big business mainframe computers, arguing against the PC in 1977. (See [3] for historical context.)
  • "I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year." -- The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957.[1]
  • "640K ought to be enough for anybody."[1] or "No one will need more than 637 kilobytes of memory for a personal computer."
    Two variants of the same quote, often misattributed to Bill Gates in 1981. Gates has repeatedly denied ever saying this, and he points out that it has never been attributed to him with a proper source. In fact, the memory limitation was due to the hardware architecture of the IBM PC.[2]
  • "But what... is it good for?" -- IBM executive Robert Lloyd, speaking in 1968 about the microprocessor, the heart of today’s computers.[citation needed]
  • "We will never make a 32 bit operating system." -- Bill Gates[3]

The page that the above quotes were taken from can be found here.

I thought that these quotes were interesting - but are they all true? As with all things on the web, they should be validated. See Part 3 for validation...

A Failed Prediction: The Computer: Part 1

As part of a futuring class, I have been asked to look at a failed prediction and discuss the failure in a blog. I have thought about this for a week now. I have decided to investigate why people believed that the computer would fail. I will include a variety of different thoughts on this topic and welcome your thoughts as well, so please post them!

Initially, I am thinking about tracking down who believed it would fail, and then I would like to see if I can determine how they came to this conclusion. Stay tuned for more information as it becomes available. My only disclaimer is that I am going to post information as I find it. My goal is to make small digestible stand-alone bite-size blogs. As such, there might be some duplication of information in the attempts to make each post stand alone.

Web 2.0 - Google Docs

I have begun using Google docs this week. I thought I was doing pretty well - I setup a couple of documents and tested them out - they worked great. I then got fancy and applied priv's to one of the folders bia a Google Group - or so I thought. Imagine my surprise when a new document showed up from Cyn in the shared documents. I am not sure how that happened - but it shows that I don't quite understand the security involved with the documents. If anyone can help me understand how to share a folder vs. a document, that would be great. I have resorted to reading through the help - so if I find an answer, I will be sure to post it!

Sunday, July 29, 2007

Web 2.0 - iGoogle and Picasa

Well, you have to love Google. I ran into a new feature called iGoogle that is very Web 2.0ish. I wanted to blog on this feature. I also wanted to include screen captures. Well, I took a number of screen catpures using Snag-it. If you don't have Snag-it - you should. You can find more info here.

Anyways, after I took a bunch of pictures of how to perform this task, I had to think how to nicely include them in a blog. Well, I clicked on Picasa, and I found the pictures I stored via Snag-it. I realized I had catpures the images as png - but blogs like jpegs. Well, a quick right-click from Snag-it - and they were all jpegs. I then went into Picasa, and was going to upload to the web. As I was waiting for the upload to complete, I noticed a button called Blogline, so I clicked it. I was shocked when all the pictures were uploaded into this blog, and I all had to do was adjust spacing. The more I use Picasa, the more I am impressed.

Ok - sorry for the districtation, but that key learning was important enough to get some attention.

OK - iGoogle.... When I was doing a couple of searches today, I saw a link called iGoogle, and I was curious as to what this link did, and down the rabbit hole I went. The link is on the top right-hand side of the Google main page - I have included the figure below where it shows the specific location.

Click that link and see where you go!





Here is the screen that comes up when you click iGoogle. Notice it has a lot of features - many of which are linked to other Google tools. For example, my calendar came up, along with some news setting that I had previously set.

What is really cool - grab one of the gadgets and move it to where you want it - that's Ajax in action. Anyways, there are a lot of gadgets that can be added and removed as needed.





One item of interest was the weather - the default location that came up wasn't of interest. However, by clicking the drop-down menu button - the user gets choices - and we all like choices. See the next figure for specifics.






Here are the options that came up - the nice thing for me was that I could customize my region by entering in a zip code or city name. Save the choices and there you go - the weather is customized for your area.







To return back to the original Google, simply go back to the top right and click on "classic" and this will return you to the normal Google page.

Enjoy!
Posted by Picasa

SL and proxy servers - is there a solution?

I think that I isolated my issue with SL and running behind a corporate firewall.... In my case, I am required to use a proxy server to get out from behind the firewall. However, it appears that SL isn't setup to handle a proxy server. I Googled this and saw several other posts on this front essentially saying the same thing. However, maybe someone out there knows of a work around?

Thursday, July 26, 2007

Web 2.0 Google Picasa

I was so disappointed in Flickr I thought I would go check out Google and see what they have to offer - nothing like comparitive shopping. I found that they have a similar picture sharing application called Picasa. As expected, it is very impressive, and it works. With a single click of a mouse button I can upload a picture from my harddrive to the web. The interface is clean and easy to use. I will post more examples on how to use Picasa http://picasaweb.google.com/home but I am very impressed. Initial impression - Picasa has earned an A, as would be expected from Google. More to follow, but I am likely going to use this over Flickr.

Flickr - initial impressions

Well, I have begun to use Flickr, and my initial impressions are that its a cool concept, but the implementation is that of a beta, or I am too used to Google. The first issue is that when I selected maps, the web page hung for about 45 minutes, which was irritating. It seems like a time-out would have been in order.

I then signed up to add family members, and that interface wasn't designed by anyone who knows about GUI's. That is an issue because this page is likely used frequently. All fields are required, so why they would use a grayed out field as shown below cost me about 5 minute of looking. Of course, the error that was given didn't take me to the point of origin - the text field. It takes 1 line of JavaScript to place the cursor in the offending location - and 1 more line to turn the label red. It baffles me why they have missed out on this usability opportunity. I have included a photo below to show the issue.


Finally, I have to say that to find help or a page that highlights all the features has continued to remain hidden. It might be there - but its clearly not in some location that I am looking. Maybe I need to go back through and start looking at the grayed out items. However, I always like to find that single page that walks through how to use the common features of a page.

Inital impressions of Flickr - the concept is an A - the implemenation - a C - overall score B-.
scc

Flickr - let's check that out

Michelle Hammond http://michelle-michellesblogs.blogspot.com/ posted on a tool called Flickr. I like that concept and I think that is next on the list of items to checkout. As Michelle pointed out, this tool allows photo sharing with family. Stay tuned for an update, and a tool rating :)

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Web 2.0 Google Talk - Update

Well, Google Talk is quite slick. Michelle and I spoke tonight using the tool, and we were both surprised at how well it worked. On my end, I was most amazed that Google Talk bypasses my company firewall. I was logged onto my work system remotely, but it was able to function just fine in terms of traffic not getting blocked. The service is very similar to IM - but in additiono to being able to talk via typing, you can use your computers microphone and carry on a voice conversation. I would say that this is a must have tool as it allows conversation across corporate boundaries. I am going to load up skype next and see how that performs. This tool gets a grade of an A, as we have come to expect from Google.

Monday, July 23, 2007

Web 2.0 Google Talk

I recently lost the ability to IM outside of my company due to security issues. This is an issue because I have contacts in other industries that I like to leverage for help. However, the blanket policy was made - no IMing outside of the company, and hotmail was shut-down. I thought that I might check out the tools from Google as they often come up with clever solutions.

Well, today, I found something called GoogleTalk - http://www.google.com/talk/ and have installed this on my computer. I have also sent out invitations to a number of people that I used to communicate with, and am currently waiting to see if they respond. I am hopeful that this tool returns functionality that I once had. I will post an update, but this looks like a cool tool and might help me stay in touch with friends and vendors.

Attacks without controllling a PC - Link

I read a great article that discusses how Denial of Service attacks are now being launched from networks without controlling a user's computer. With the number of security folks in our class, I thought I would include the link here in case someone else was interested. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6908064.stm

Sunday, July 22, 2007

Charting in .NET

I have been working with several charting vendors using the .NET framework. I have come to several conclusions that I thought I would share. I welcome any and all feedback, including recommendations on other vendors that people have found to be powerful.

I first tried Dundas. I found their object model to be very easy to use - without a doubt - it is very straight forward. I also like how they data-bind objects - very intuitive. The software has a nice interface and produces very nice graphs. Currently, this is my software of choice for graphing. However, I wish Dundas would make one improvement - and that is on their rendoring. Read below, because when it comes to rendering, ChartFX has some very nice features.

ChartFX does an awesome job rendering graphs. The mouse-over features are remarkable. Specifically, when you hover over a series, the other series disappear allowing the user to clearly see trends. Also, the datapoints are labeled with series name, x, and y coordinates. All of this comes for free - and is very responsive. However, CharFX has two issues - the databinding object model is very weak when it comes to databases - eps. if the user wants a cross-tab chart. I also encountered a number of miscellanous bugs in the software - the a ability to determine the visible chart area seems to be an issue, and when trying to upgrade the dll's based on the built in mechanism, that seems to have issues as well.

In summary, I would offer these thoughts on the strengths of each vendor
Dundas -
  • Great object model - easy to use
  • Exceptional databinding
  • Seems very stable, few software bugs
  • Great tech support

ChartFX

  • Best chart rendering for features (mouse-overs, x/y coordinates, etc.)
  • Interface presented to the user during run-time is more polished.
Those are my experiences. I would like to hear about yours - are there other vendors out there that should be investigated? I am currently checking out TeeChart - but I have not had time yet to see how they perform, but hopefully soon.

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Second Life does perform on Gateway Tablets

Well, after some help from a knowledgeable source, it turns out that the Gateway Tablets work with Second Life. There are some settings that must be configured correctly. The big modulator was setting the upload bandwidth to as high of a setting at your network permits. In my case, the setting was placed on the min - which made the program appear choppy.

Another configuration item was turning off the fog. Again - this made it a bit crisper.

Thanks Cyn for the help!

scc

Monday, July 9, 2007

Second Life Issues

Ok - I must be stressed because the time it took me from the time that I created the blog to my first official venting - less than 1 day.

Second Life just doesn't run on the Gateway Tablet PCs. I have given up in frustration. I have tried new video drivers, defraging the hard-drive, rebuilding the system, closing down other apps, etc. In the end, when I do get it to run, it is choppy at best. When I am done with the app my PC tanks within an hour or so, which of course forces a hard reboot. I have seen Second Life run on more powerful machines, and it is very nice. however, trying to use the Gateway tablet is a mistake. Maybe my rant should be about Gateway Tablets and not Second Life....

Disclaimer

The opinions on this blog are those of my own and in no way reflect those of my employer.

DCS855 blog creation....

This is the start of my class blog for DCS855. Stay tuned for more information.