A Successful Prediction - Moore's Law - Part 3

Moore's prediction that states the number of transistors on a chip will double every 2 years continues to hold true. Moore suggested that this might end when the size of the transistor reaches that size of atoms, but believes that this won't happen until 2020. However, other futurists seem to disagree. For example, Kurzweil suggest that this Law will hold true long after 2020 - he believes that a new approach will emerge and allow this trend to continue.

So - how did Moore's prediction come about? Here is a an article that discusses that question specifically. The highlights are as follows. Essentially Moore has noticed the number of components on a chip where doubling each year, and from there he concluded this trend would continue. He later revised this doubling to every two years. However, Moore notes that he didn't realize the significance of his discovery. In fact, there is a great comment found here that says "Moore says he now sees his law as more beautiful than he had realised. "Moore's Law is a violation of Murphy's Law. Everything gets better and better."[13] "